Azrael wrote:
Bruce_Bitenfils wrote:
Le Pen probably won't ask her voters to vote for Sarkozy (she aims to gobble up Sarko's party and wants it utterly destroyed to ease the task), so Hollande should win this quite easily.
Fucking politics. Really depressed about it right now.
not heavily into the topic, but it looks to me like the younger Le Pen has quite a lot of influence now. she won't go Hollande's way, but do you think she could try to force Sarkozy into a deal that would give her party more power for the next term, or something?
- On Marine Le Pen's influence: well, yes and no. Her score was high, but not
that high. In 2002, the two nationalist candidates (Jean-Marie Le Pen and Bruno Mégret) made 19,2%, whereas she's made 18% last Sunday. That's high, but not high enough to consistently weight on the UMP (the center-right/right wing party) on her own. She's talented and here to stay, though.
- On the possible deals between the UMP and the FN: this is her bet, her strategy. She wants to make the UMP implode, scavenge it for its most nationalist, traditional and conservative components, and create a new party which would be the top right-leaning party of the country. Sarkozy wouldn't have any part in this however, as he stated he'd just resign from politics in case he loses the Presidential election.
- When can/will the UMP implode and Le Pen gain parts of it? -> the Presidential election is only the first part of the 2012 French elections, there are the
Législatives in June, which are just as important (Parliament members elections). Three scenarios:
1)
IF Hollande wins
and the UMP implodes between the Presidential and the elections of June (that's quite a big "if", but possible), there would be deals in some circonscriptions and therefore there would be FN Parliament members elected. Potentially plenty of them. This is the best scenario for Le Pen.
2) If Hollande wins, but the UMP doesn't implode (before June, or at all), the FN would play the same role as usual. Which is, almost none, basically, because of/thanks to our (outdated) institutions. But she would definitely be back with a vengeance in 2017. Second-best scenario for Le Pen.
3) If Sarkozy wins, the PS (Hollande's party) is completely devastated. It would have no impact on the FN, but it would have a huge one on Bayrou's Modem and Mélenchon's Front de Gauche. Worst-case scenario for Le Pen, because the latter is an electoral menace for her (they pretty much share the same electorate, it's been proven.)
Conclusion: Le Pen has no interest whatsoever (in my and many's opinion) in a Sarko victory. And the month of May is going to be crucial...