The General Politics Thread

Bruce_Bitenfils · **Posted:** Thu May 03, 2012 9:13 pm

Goat wrote:

Yo Bruce, what the fuck is Bayrou playing at?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe39ed68-953f ... z1tpoyOI7t

The whole point of centrists is that we stick two fingers up at the socialist/conservative duopoly, not support the one who looks like he'll win! Bah.

This is no support! He said that he intends use the Hollande ballot, but didn't ask his troops to do the same. He still considers himself in the opposition, 100%. And he said a few months ago he would choose somebody, he did.

Quote:

Local elections day in most of the UK, turnouts everywhere reported to be very low. Clearly, voters are pissed off with everyone, and want less politics, not more.

Worry not, it will come back

Quite the opposite here, I went downtown this afternoon/evening, EVERYBODY talked about the Hollande vs. Sarko duel. Amazing, even kids who don't give a damn about politics, everyone. Just... wow.
It won't last though.

traptunderice · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 10:31 am

Goat wrote:

and want less politics, not more.

That's how you read that? Maybe they want politics that actually represent them.

Goat · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 1:42 pm

traptunderice wrote:

Goat wrote:

and want less politics, not more.

That's how you read that? Maybe they want politics that actually represent them.

Such as Occupy, I suppose? Hard to see that, considering fringe party results... Far left and far right did badly, British National Party wiped out completely.

Otherwise, it's to be expected: Labour gains in the north, Lib Dems doing ok against Tories in the south - basic story is that government parties are doing poorly, opposition doing well. Most people hate the government, whoever runs it.

Cú Chulainn · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 1:50 pm

Goat wrote:

Otherwise, it's to be expected: Labour gains in the north, Lib Dems doing ok against Tories in the south - basic story is that government parties are doing poorly, opposition doing well. Most people hate the government, whoever runs it.

Unless you mean North of England, in Scotland the SNP are running away with it again. :dio:

Lib Dem results in Edinburgh are half what they were in 2007.

Goat · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 2:03 pm

Cú Chulainn wrote:

Goat wrote:

Otherwise, it's to be expected: Labour gains in the north, Lib Dems doing ok against Tories in the south - basic story is that government parties are doing poorly, opposition doing well. Most people hate the government, whoever runs it.

Unless you mean North of England, in Scotland the SNP are running away with it again. :dio:

Lib Dem results in Edinburgh are half what they were in 2007.

Obviously an Anglocentric bastard like I means the north of England! ;) Did you boot Labour out of Glasgow?

Cú Chulainn · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 2:42 pm

Goat wrote:

Cú Chulainn wrote:

Goat wrote:

Otherwise, it's to be expected: Labour gains in the north, Lib Dems doing ok against Tories in the south - basic story is that government parties are doing poorly, opposition doing well. Most people hate the government, whoever runs it.

Unless you mean North of England, in Scotland the SNP are running away with it again. :dio:

Lib Dem results in Edinburgh are half what they were in 2007.

Obviously an Anglocentric bastard like I means the north of England! ;) Did you boot Labour out of Glasgow?

Glasgow results aren't in yet, as far as I can tell.

Anyway:
David Cameron: "It was inevitable that the coalition would lose council seats - we are in government after all"

Alex Salmond: "The SNP have been in Government for 5 years, and it looks like we will gain more than 20 seats in the local council elections"

Whoop-de-doo!

traptunderice · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 7:01 pm

Goat wrote:

traptunderice wrote:

Goat wrote:

and want less politics, not more.

That's how you read that? Maybe they want politics that actually represent them.

Such as Occupy, I suppose? Hard to see that, considering fringe party results... Far left and far right did badly, British National Party wiped out completely.

Not Occupy necessarily but it's the closest we have to it. Local politics, non-partisan politics, something different. I don't see Occupy as a fringe movement no matter how it is framed by the media. At the end of the day, a lot of the folks here in the states are more likely unemployed or had their homes foreclosed on them than radical anarchist commies. But also a lot of hipster college kids too who haven't been duped by parties, or entered into the world in the post-party mindset and thought Obama was that hope, which they are disillusioned with if not still supportive of.

Azrael · **Posted:** Fri May 04, 2012 9:58 pm

Bruce_Bitenfils wrote:

1) IF Hollande wins and the UMP implodes between the Presidential and the elections of June (that's quite a big "if", but possible), there would be deals in some circonscriptions and therefore there would be FN Parliament members elected. Potentially plenty of them. This is the best scenario for Le Pen.
2) If Hollande wins, but the UMP doesn't implode (before June, or at all), the FN would play the same role as usual. Which is, almost none, basically, because of/thanks to our (outdated) institutions. But she would definitely be back with a vengeance in 2017. Second-best scenario for Le Pen.
3) If Sarkozy wins, the PS (Hollande's party) is completely devastated. It would have no impact on the FN, but it would have a huge one on Bayrou's Modem and Mélenchon's Front de Gauche. Worst-case scenario for Le Pen, because the latter is an electoral menace for her (they pretty much share the same electorate, it's been proven.)

Conclusion: Le Pen has no interest whatsoever (in my and many's opinion) in a Sarko victory. And the month of May is going to be crucial...

what's her gameplan for voting round 2? and FN/FdG share the same electorate?

Bruce_Bitenfils · **Posted:** Sat May 05, 2012 12:05 am

Azrael wrote:

Bruce_Bitenfils wrote:

1) IF Hollande wins and the UMP implodes between the Presidential and the elections of June (that's quite a big "if", but possible), there would be deals in some circonscriptions and therefore there would be FN Parliament members elected. Potentially plenty of them. This is the best scenario for Le Pen.
2) If Hollande wins, but the UMP doesn't implode (before June, or at all), the FN would play the same role as usual. Which is, almost none, basically, because of/thanks to our (outdated) institutions. But she would definitely be back with a vengeance in 2017. Second-best scenario for Le Pen.
3) If Sarkozy wins, the PS (Hollande's party) is completely devastated. It would have no impact on the FN, but it would have a huge one on Bayrou's Modem and Mélenchon's Front de Gauche. Worst-case scenario for Le Pen, because the latter is an electoral menace for her (they pretty much share the same electorate, it's been proven.)

Conclusion: Le Pen has no interest whatsoever (in my and many's opinion) in a Sarko victory. And the month of May is going to be crucial...

what's her gameplan for voting round 2? and FN/FdG share the same electorate?

Le Pen asked her voters to choose the blank vote. There were 10 competitors in round 1, none of the 9 Sarko's adversaries chose him for round 2. I don't like Sarkozy, but if he manages to win this one... hats off to him.

The latest polls give Hollande 52 - Sarko 48. My bet is it's gonna be a close one, closer than this.

Bruce_Bitenfils · **Posted:** Sun May 06, 2012 6:10 pm

So long, sucker.

Goat · **Posted:** Sun May 06, 2012 6:12 pm

And Nazis are winning seats in Greece. Interesting times...

Bruce_Bitenfils · **Posted:** Sun May 06, 2012 6:46 pm

Goat wrote:

And Nazis are winning seats in Greece. Interesting times...

It's all Germany's fault (see? We even have a scapegoat). Let the war begin!

Goat · **Posted:** Sun May 06, 2012 6:55 pm

Bruce_Bitenfils wrote:

Goat wrote:

And Nazis are winning seats in Greece. Interesting times...

It's all Germany's fault (see? We even have a scapegoat). Let the war begin!

In the meantime, London will start putting tube signs up in French for the benefit of your rich entrepreneurs, fleeing from the socialist jaw.

The Annoying Frenchman · **Posted:** Mon May 07, 2012 2:41 am

Bruce_Bitenfils · **Posted:** Mon May 07, 2012 5:21 am

The Annoying Frenchman wrote:

Tee-hee. Although I'd be surprised if people here get it.

dead1 · **Joined:** Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:22 am **Posts:** 2250

Goat wrote:

And Nazis are winning seats in Greece. Interesting times...

And Merkel's own party got slugged in one of the state/province elections in Germany.

A backlash against government cutbacks?

Whatever the case, I think Eurozone crisis will be extended and if not aggravated by these election results.

Bad news for Euro and global economic stability.

The Annoying Frenchman · **Posted:** Mon May 07, 2012 8:32 am

Bruce_Bitenfils wrote:

The Annoying Frenchman wrote:

Tee-hee. Although I'd be surprise if people here get it.

Nevermind. It was for you, mainly. :wink:

Bruce_Bitenfils · **Posted:** Mon May 07, 2012 8:47 am

The Annoying Frenchman wrote:

Nevermind. It was for you, mainly. :wink:

Day one brother, Day one! :dio:

Karmakosmonaut · **Posted:** Mon May 07, 2012 5:15 pm

“Bastille 1789, les sans culottes. Bastille 2012 les sans papiers“

Yegh. Already sick of the man.

The Annoying Frenchman · **Posted:** Mon May 07, 2012 10:18 pm

We were sick of Sarkozy.

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