rio wrote:
In 30-40 years time I'll take you up on that.
Look, we can't observe these big objective markers that signify surefire change. But dialectically, there has for a very long time been a growing swell of conflict within China itself, and it has already forced concessions. You say that the fact that people are afraid to go against the regime means it's winning. But the fact is, the amount of things people are doing now that is against the regime is increasing, and there's ultimately not that much the regime can do about it.
I've met people who've done research in China (hopefully I will myself some day, for now it's just reading and interviewing) and they unfailingly come back with the impression of the Chinese as one of, if not the, most radical, militant working class in the entire world. The fact that it is allowed to exist, with no Tiananmen-style massacres, should tell you something big.
That there's a greater difference between the government and the opposition than there is, say, here? As long as the regime appears to be changing, people are mollified, but in reality they control a great deal and there's nothing the hardcore can do about it. Can I ask for some proof that the resistance is growing, not that I doubt your word, but I just don't see how there CAN be any more resistance now than there was, say, in '89. Of course, the working class is going to be more militant; they need to be! They have more to fight against! And you say that there are no Tiananmen-style massacres, but that's because the opposition isn't there! Individual cases of human rights oppression are as prevalent as ever, surely, and they get lost in the media blackout and the lack of interest.
Please, convince me otherwise.